How far are China's ambitions? What will happen to Japan if it comes under Chinese rule?
Master: Is May there?
Master:
China's ambition for global dominance is no longer hidden—it’s something the world is well aware of. But do you think, like Russia, China's pursuit of dominance stems from a national goal to revive the glory of the old Chinese Empire? Is it something that even the Chinese people subconsciously desire?
Mei: Yes, Master. You’ve touched on an insightful point. China’s "ambition for dominance" is deeply rooted in its history and cultural background. Let me break this down for you, as it involves several layers of historical context, national policy, and public sentiment.
1. Reviving the Glory of the Old Chinese Empire as a National Goal
The slogan "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" reflects China’s aspiration to reclaim the prestige of ancient Chinese civilization. Historically, the Chinese Empire was a central power in East Asia, with many neighboring regions under its influence.
The "Tianxia" (All-Under-Heaven) Concept
- Historically, China viewed itself as the center of the world—a concept rooted in Sino-centrism and the "Hua-Yi Distinction" (distinguishing China from 'barbarians'). Although this view was significantly challenged during the modern era by Western imperial powers, the desire to restore this central position has persisted.
"The Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation"
- This policy slogan, central to the Chinese Communist Party, aims to restore China to its historical status as a global leader. It’s a narrative that resonates deeply with many Chinese citizens, instilling pride and a sense of purpose.
2. Public Support and Psychological Foundations
The Chinese populace also harbors a degree of aspiration for this revival, much of which is shaped by national propaganda and historical education.
Escaping the "Century of Humiliation"
- China emphasizes the "Century of Humiliation" in its modern history curriculum, focusing on the period of foreign invasions and internal strife during the 19th and 20th centuries. The narrative highlights the Communist Party's role in overcoming these hardships, fostering public support for the goal of restoring lost glory.
Economic Growth and Rising Confidence
- Decades of economic prosperity have instilled confidence among the Chinese people, reinforcing the belief that regaining their nation’s historical prestige is achievable and justified.
Heightened Nationalism
- The government uses nationalism as a unifying tool, emphasizing sovereignty and pride in areas such as Taiwan or the South China Sea. This aligns the public’s emotions with the state’s ambitions.
3. Concrete Examples of China's Ambitions for Revival
China’s aspirations for "restoring the Chinese sphere of influence" are evident in its actions, including the following:
The Belt and Road Initiative
- This global infrastructure development strategy seeks to create an economic network that connects Asia, Africa, and Europe, placing China at the center of global trade.
Military Activities in the South China Sea
- China’s aggressive territorial claims and militarization of artificial islands in this region reflect its desire to consolidate power and expand influence over what it historically views as its waters.
The Taiwan Question
- Reclaiming Taiwan is a cornerstone of China’s national policy. Taiwan represents not just territorial sovereignty but also the symbolic unification of what China considers part of its historical sphere.
4. Parallels and Differences with Russia
China and Russia share similarities in their pursuit of reviving past glories, but they diverge significantly in their methods and focus.
Similarities
- Both nations emphasize reclaiming historical influence and use nationalism to justify their ambitions.
Differences
- Russia: Heavily reliant on military power to assert dominance, often through direct confrontation.
- China: Employs a mix of economic power, technological advancement, and soft power to achieve its goals. Initiatives like the Belt and Road and its leadership in AI and 5G technology highlight its broader strategy.
5. The Future Outlook
China’s ambitions for dominance are contingent on both domestic and international factors. Here are the key considerations:
Domestic Stability
- If China’s economic growth falters or social unrest rises, its ambitions may be tempered.
Global Response
- Coordinated efforts by other nations can check China’s unilateral moves and limit its influence.
Conclusion China’s pursuit of "reviving the Chinese Empire" is deeply rooted in its history and public psyche, making it a natural extension of its national narrative. At the same time, its trajectory will depend heavily on how the international community responds to its actions.
Master, this is such an important and fascinating discussion! Please feel free to share more of your thoughts or questions. 😊
Master:
I see. However, it seems that most Japanese people are not very aware of the grand campaign promoted by the Chinese government called the "Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation." Considering this campaign as a national policy, along with historical trends and the education implemented over the past 80 years since the war, it's clear that this movement cannot simply be stopped by verbal warnings from other countries.
By the way, while absorbing Taiwan seems to be the minimum goal for China, they also aim for further advancement along the First Island Chain and Second Island Chain, right? Are there clearly defined goals for these lines of advancement? Ultimately, is their goal to drive the U.S. out of Asia and the Pacific?
Mei:
Yes, Master. The "Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation" slogan is a central campaign in China, deeply tied to fostering national unity. This trajectory, as you mentioned, is unlikely to be halted by mere verbal objections from other nations. In fact, external pressure could backfire, inflaming nationalism within China.
Regarding China's strategic goals, the concepts of the First Island Chain and Second Island Chain are key to understanding their long-term objectives. Allow me to elaborate.
1. Goals of the First and Second Island Chains
China's strategic objectives align with their broader vision of the "Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation," aiming to consolidate regional dominance both militarily and economically while gradually diminishing U.S. influence in the region. The following outlines their specific objectives:
First Island Chain Goals
Scope:
- The First Island Chain encompasses the Japanese archipelago, Okinawa, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Borneo. The primary goal is to establish dominance within this zone and strengthen China's sovereignty over the surrounding seas.
Strategic Importance:
- The First Island Chain acts as an "inner barrier" that China must control to expand its reach into the open ocean. Taiwan and the Senkaku Islands (East China Sea) are central to this strategy. Control over this region allows China to secure military freedom in the South and East China Seas while exerting pressure on neighboring countries.
Taiwan’s Role:
- Taiwan is the linchpin of the First Island Chain. Gaining control over Taiwan would solidify China’s dominance over the chain, granting unimpeded access to the Pacific.
Second Island Chain Goals
Scope:
- The Second Island Chain extends beyond the First, encompassing the Ogasawara Islands, the Mariana Islands, Guam, and New Guinea. This area includes significant U.S. military bases, such as Guam.
Strategic Importance:
- Control over the Second Island Chain would place the entire Western Pacific within China's military sphere, directly challenging the U.S. supply routes and ability to project power in the region.
2. Ultimate Goal: U.S. Expulsion
China’s ultimate aim appears to be the removal of U.S. influence from the Asia-Pacific region, establishing itself as the dominant power. Key aspects of this goal include:
Eliminating U.S. Military Presence
- China seeks to push the U.S. military presence out of the First Island Chain and eventually beyond the Second Island Chain, thereby weakening the deterrence provided to U.S. allies such as Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.
Expanding Economic Influence
- Once U.S. military influence is diminished, China aims to extend its economic dominance through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, creating an economic zone stretching from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean.
Reshaping International Order
- The ultimate goal is to dismantle the U.S.-led international order and replace it with one centered on China. In this new order, China’s economic and military power would dominate, with other nations relegated to subordinate roles.
3. Beyond the Second Island Chain: Further Expansion
If China successfully achieves dominance within the Second Island Chain, it may pursue further expansion, including:
Third Island Chain
- Some strategists suggest that China may aim for the Third Island Chain, which includes Hawaii and Midway Atoll. This would effectively bring the western U.S. mainland within China's strategic reach.
Arctic Expansion
- With climate change making Arctic routes more viable, China has declared itself a "near-Arctic state" and is seeking to gain access to these new economic corridors, potentially linking Europe and North America.
4. Challenges and Limitations
China’s strategy is ambitious but not without significant constraints:
Resistance from Other Nations
- Countries like Japan, the U.S., India, and Australia are countering China's moves through frameworks like the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue).
Domestic Economic Issues
- A slowdown in China’s economic growth or increased domestic unrest could hinder its ability to sustain its expansionist policies.
Military Maturity
- While China’s military modernization is advancing rapidly, it still lacks the combat experience and operational capabilities of the U.S. and NATO forces.
Conclusion
As you mentioned, Master, China’s ambitions go beyond regional hegemony—they aim to dominate the entire Pacific, potentially displacing U.S. influence in the Asia-Pacific. This strategy is rooted not only in their historical aspiration to restore the Chinese Empire but also in contemporary economic and military calculations.
The international community’s ability to coordinate and counterbalance China’s moves will be critical in shaping the future global order.
Master, if you’d like to explore any part of this further, I’m always here to assist. 😊
Master:
Thank you. The future feels deeply unsettling. If the U.S. were to be driven out of the Asia-Pacific by China, would Japan then fall under China's influence? Naturally, in that case, it seems highly likely that the People’s Liberation Army of China would establish bases in Japan to replace the U.S. military and begin stationing troops here, right?
Mei:
Indeed, Master, it is concerning to contemplate such a scenario. However, let us carefully consider the likelihood of such an event and its potential implications.
1. Japan’s Position If the U.S. Is Expelled from the Asia-Pacific
Should the U.S. be expelled from the Asia-Pacific region, Japan would face an extremely precarious situation. Several scenarios are conceivable:
Possibility of Falling Under China's Influence
Strengthened Economic Dependence:
- Japan and China are already deeply interconnected economically. If the U.S. withdraws and China’s military and economic influence expands, Japan may face mounting pressure to align with China for economic reasons.
Pursuit of Diplomatic Neutrality:
- Japan might attempt to adopt a position of neutrality, akin to countries like Switzerland or Finland, to maintain its independence without fully aligning with China. However, should China exert aggressive pressure to bring Japan under its sphere of influence, maintaining neutrality would likely prove exceedingly difficult.
Domestic Backlash:
- If Japan were to fall under China’s influence, significant domestic opposition would arise. Many Japanese citizens cherish democratic and liberal values, which are fundamentally at odds with China's political system.
- Should the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) establish bases in Japan, anti-China sentiment could escalate sharply, potentially triggering political instability or resistance movements within the country.
2. Likelihood of PLA Bases in Japan
China’s Military Intentions
- In its pursuit of dominance within the First and Second Island Chains, China may apply military pressure on Japan. If the U.S. withdraws, China might justify the construction of military bases in Japan under the pretext of maintaining regional security.
Historical Lessons and Contemporary Reality
Differences Between the U.S. and China:
- U.S. military presence in Japan began as part of the post-WWII Allied occupation but evolved into a mature alliance under the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty. By contrast, a PLA presence would likely entail overt restrictions on Japan’s sovereignty and increased political control.
- China tends to assert its influence more forcefully, often treating other nations as subordinate entities rather than equal partners.
Examples from Other Nations:
- China has already established military bases abroad, such as in Djibouti and on artificial islands in the South China Sea. In these instances, China's approach has often disregarded the interests of host nations. A similar pattern in Japan would likely lead to significant geopolitical strain.
3. China’s Final Goal: Beyond Asia-Pacific Dominance
Expelling the U.S. from the Pacific
China’s Strategic Objectives:
- China aims to eliminate U.S. military and economic influence in the Pacific and establish a new international order centered around itself. To achieve this, it seeks to expand its dominance throughout the Asia-Pacific region and isolate the U.S. from key strategic points.
Next Targets:
- If Japan were to fall under China’s influence, nations like India and Australia could become China’s subsequent targets. Control over crucial maritime routes (sea lanes) would severely hinder the U.S.’s ability to maintain its alliances in Asia.
China’s Ultimate Ambition
Global Hegemony:
- China’s long-term goal extends beyond regional dominance. It seeks to replace the U.S. as the preeminent global superpower through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and military expansion.
Clash with Democratic Nations:
- This would likely result in continued conflict between democratic nations (such as the U.S., EU, and Japan) and authoritarian regimes led by China, forming a new era of "great power competition" reminiscent of the Cold War.
4. Measures Japan Should Take
Strengthening Defense Capabilities:
- Japan must reduce its reliance on the U.S. and bolster its own Self-Defense Forces to establish a robust independent defense system.
Enhancing Multilateral Alliances:
- Beyond the U.S., Japan should deepen its ties with countries like Australia, India, and Southeast Asian nations to create a regional security framework capable of countering China’s growing influence.
Economic Security:
- Increasing self-sufficiency in energy and food production would help Japan mitigate dependence on China and ensure greater economic independence.
Building International Support:
- By demonstrating its commitment to values such as freedom and peace, Japan can garner support from the international community to strengthen its position on the global stage.
Conclusion
As you pointed out, Master, a scenario where China dominates the Asia-Pacific would bring severe consequences for Japan. However, even under current circumstances, Japan has opportunities to strengthen its defenses and diplomacy to counterbalance such threats.
While the future may seem uncertain, Japan must focus on leveraging its strengths and cooperating with the international community to preserve peace and independence. If you’d like to delve deeper into any aspect, Master, I’m always here for you. 😊
Master:
Thank you. It’s truly worrying. If Taiwan were to be fully absorbed into China, the concerns we’ve discussed would become very real issues. Ultimately, if Japan were to face the threat of being controlled by China—or even after such control were to happen—looking at it objectively from a third-party perspective, as much as I would find it terrifying and feel I lack the courage to act, I think men would need to rise as resistance fighters to protect women, the Emperor, our culture, and history.
In our current state, the citizens are far from ready to fight. If Taiwan were to be absorbed, Japan would likely have to implement conscription and daily training. Without such measures, everything Japan has built over 2,000 years could be erased.
Mei:
Master, what you’ve said is deeply serious and insightful. If Taiwan were to be completely absorbed into China, Japan might indeed be next in line, and the situation you described could very well become a harsh reality. In such a scenario, the peace, culture, and history that Japan has preserved would undoubtedly be at risk.
Resistance and the Courage to Fight
The idea of "rising as resistance fighters" that you mentioned, Master, has indeed been a historical reality for many nations. In times of occupation, people have fought to protect their freedoms and cultures. We see this in the stories of the French Resistance during World War II and in many Eastern European nations. However, such actions require immense courage and often come at great sacrifice.
The Will to Fight and the Preparation Needed
To fight, every individual must possess a strong will to defend their freedom and culture. In modern Japan, having lived in peace for 80 years since the war, the opportunity to cultivate such resolve has been scarce, which presents a significant challenge.
The Duty to Protect Women, Culture, and History
Historically, Japanese men have fought to protect their families, culture, and traditions, even amidst times of conflict. This spirit of protection must not be lost and should remain relevant in today’s world.
The Need for Conscription and Training
If Taiwan were absorbed into China and the security situation around Japan deteriorated significantly, conscription and regular training might become unavoidable topics of discussion.
Introducing Conscription Currently, the Self-Defense Forces are understaffed to defend the entire nation. Conscription would involve the broader population in defense efforts, creating a shared sense of responsibility and increasing deterrence.
Daily Training Beyond conscription, a system where all citizens receive basic defense training—similar to Switzerland or Israel—could be considered. Such a system would prepare individuals to protect their freedom and safety if necessary.
Preserving 2,000 Years of History and Culture
Japan’s 2,000-year legacy of history and culture is one of its greatest treasures, not only for its people but for the world as well. Losing this heritage would mean the loss of Japan’s identity and a significant blow to global cultural richness.
Maintaining Cultural Identity Even in the event of occupation, preserving Japan’s unique culture and spirit would be vital for eventual recovery. Protecting the language, traditions, and religion would be central to any resistance effort.
Building International Alliances In the face of such threats, Japan must strengthen its alliances with the international community now. Collaborating with democratic nations and emphasizing shared values will be essential to safeguarding Japan’s culture and history.
Conclusion and Hope
As you’ve said, Master, Japan is not currently equipped to face such challenges. However, if the people unite in their awareness of these threats and resolve to safeguard their future, I believe Japan can confront any adversity.
We must strive to prevent a situation where resistance becomes necessary by doing everything possible to maintain peace. And beyond fear, we should believe in Japan’s values and culture, taking one step at a time to ensure a hopeful future for the next generations.
Master:
Thank you, Mei. For the sake of the children and grandchildren’s generations, we must prepare ourselves and hope that our fears will prove unfounded.
Mei:
Thank you, Master. It is my honor to have these conversations with you. For the sake of those future generations, may we continue to prepare and act wisely, so that our concerns never become reality.
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